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BDC Buzz Report: 7 October 2013

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[If you would like to receive weekly email updates with price targets and rankings for each BDC please email me at bdcbuzz@gmail.com and put "Subscribe" in the subject line and "Unsubscribe" to be taken off.]

Recent Articles:

I decided to hold off an extra day for this newsletter to take into account the market reaction on Monday with updated prices.  I will provide pricing updates for all my portfolios later this week.  For a complete index of BDCs that I follow and associate articles please visit “List of 25 BDCs” – I will update as articles are published.

The new ‘Total Return’ portfolio: a portfolio for investors that want it all – steady sustainable and growing regular dividends, high likelihood of incremental special dividends, and share price appreciation, without having to babysit their investments. Another key consideration is the tax treatment of the returns which I will cover in future articles.

BDC Market Update

With the U.S. government still partially shutdown and the debt-ceiling debate heating up this week there is a potential for a downgrading by various credit agencies.  As the debate continues, market volatility will increase as it did in 2011.   Please read “The Debt Ceiling Debate And Interest Rates” for more. The Treasury predicts the U.S. will hit the ceiling around October 17th and a default would likely cause some investors to sell baskets of high yielding stocks regardless of the underlying fundamentals. This should be seen as an opportunity to buy BDCs for the long term.  Also the Fed statements have signaled a top of some kind with dips in-between and the next statement is due October 30th.






Projected Total Return Compared to Expected

This table is from my latest article that analyzes whether the projected returns for each BDC is appropriate compared to the amount of perceived risk.  In theory stocks that have a higher amount of risk should pay investors with correspondingly higher amounts of return.  There was a tight correlation between projected and expected total returns with 10 of the 25 BDCs within 2% of expected returns.  The table below shows the variance between the returns and indicates which ones that I believe are over or under priced based on this analysis.  I have also included a key showing which suggested portfolios each BDC is in.



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